The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time in three years, but what does it mean for the market? The US central bank has raised its Federal Funds Rate from 3.75% to 4.00%. Markets traditionally consider a rate above 4.00% to be restrictive. Markets are broadly interpreting the press conference after the rate decision as hawkish.

In response, the US Dollar Index rose 0.70% and is yet to form a bearish correction. Gold fell more than 3.00% due to the Fed’s stance but has since risen by 1.40%. Lastly, the S&P 500 fell almost 1.60% but has almost fully regained its losses. Nonetheless, the Fed’s hawkish stance is generally considered to be negative for both Gold and the stock market.

Federal Reserve Rate Hike and Hawkish Press Conference - US Dollar Index

The Federal Reserve raised its main rate from 3.75% to 4.00% in line with market expectations. However, despite the market pricing in a rate hike, the US Dollar Index still rose 0.20% immediately after the change. The subsequent press conference and dot plot helped maintain momentum throughout the US and Asian sessions.. The Dollar has been slightly weakening as the European open edges closer.

An important factor to the Dollar’s rise was the fact that the decision was unanimous. There was a 95% chance of the Fed increasing rates, according to most exchanges. However, most economists believed some of the dovish members might stick to the decision to hold. All 12 members voted for a rate hike.

The dot plot was also one of the most hawkish signals. The September projections showed that 16 of 18 policymakers expect at least one additional 25-basis-point hike before the end of 2026. The median projection puts rates at around 4.00-4.25% by year-end, versus the new 3.75–4.00% range today. Oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, meaning that the current hawkish signal may become even stronger in October.

Kevin Warsh’s press conference was clearly hawkish, but analysts do not class it as aggressively hawkish. Nonetheless, Mr Warsh told journalists that the economy is strong and becoming more resilient over the years. In addition to this, the Fed chair told the market that the ‘the economy is not the problem, inflation is’. Lastly, this morning the former Fed governor told Bloomberg that three rate hikes over the next 12-months sounds too high.

GBP/USD - BoE to Opt for a Hawkish Pause?

Most economists continue to believe the Bank of England will pause but may have a slight hawkish tilt. The Pound Index is witnessing no gains or losses, while the US Dollar is seeing a slight gain this morning. Most of the Dollar’s bullish price movement was seen yesterday evening after the Fed’s rate decision. The GBP/USD will continue to be under the influence of the hawkish Fed up to the upcoming NFP and inflation data. However, in the short-term, today’s Monetary Policy Committee’s votes are likely to trigger the main volatility.

Currently, markets are expecting three members of the MPC to vote for a hike, while six vote for a pause. If only two vote for a hike, the GBP could come under immense pressure. If more than three vote for a hike, the GBP/USD could attempt a full price correction despite the difference in the countries’ monetary policies.

The GBP/USD is showing a bearish technical structure across all main timeframes. On the 5-minute chart, momentum remains negative, although the pair is becoming oversold, meaning a short-term corrective rebound is possible before sellers potentially return. The 30-minute chart shows a bearish trend, with the price trading below its key short-term moving averages and continuing to form lower highs and lower lows. On the daily chart, the exchange rate has broken beneath the 200-day moving average, strengthening the bearish technical outlook.

In the short-term, sell signals are likely to remain unless the price rises above 1.33865, and buy signals are unlikely to materialise unless the price rises above the 200-bar moving average at 1.33980.

Key Takeaways:

• The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike in three years, moving policy into a more restrictive range.
• A unanimous vote and the Fed dot plot indicate a further hike, helping push the US Dollar higher.
• Gold and stocks initially came under pressure. Gold fell sharply and the S&P 500 declined after the decision, although both later recovered part of their losses.
• The GBP/USD is under pressure from the stronger Dollar, while today’s Bank of England vote split could drive the next major move.