Global markets reopened Tuesday with a cautious tone as investors returned from the US Presidents’ Day holiday to find risk appetite still fragile. Equity-index futures signalled further downside in US technology stocks, while bond markets attracted renewed demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and shifting expectations around monetary policy.

US Futures Point Lower as Tech Slide Deepens

Futures linked to the S&P 500 declined roughly 0.4%, while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 dropped nearly 0.8%, indicating that the recent pullback in growth and AI-linked names may not be over. The technology sector, which had driven much of the market’s upside momentum in recent months, continues to face pressure as investors reassess valuations and the longer-term implications of AI disruption.

Last week’s inflation data complicated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and traders now await further signals from upcoming Fed commentary and minutes from January’s policy meeting.

Bonds Gain as Safe-Haven Demand Returns

US Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year yield slipping to around 4.02%, reflecting defensive positioning. The Japanese yen, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency, strengthened against the dollar, reinforcing the shift toward caution.

In Japan, government bonds rallied across the curve following stronger-than-expected demand at a five-year auction, suggesting that expectations for near-term tightening by the Bank of Japan are softening.

Asia Quiet, Europe Under Pressure

Trading volumes in Asia were subdued as markets in China, Hong Kong, and several regional centres remained closed for the Lunar New Year. Elsewhere in the region, equity performance was mixed, with Australia and India posting modest gains.

European markets have prepared for a weaker open. In the UK, the pound weakened after unemployment climbed to a near five-year high and wage growth moderated, data that could influence the Bank of England’s rate trajectory in the coming months.

Middle East Tensions Back in Focus

Geopolitical risks re-emerged as a key driver of market tone. Iran’s recent naval drills near a critical shipping route heightened concerns ahead of renewed nuclear discussions with the United States.

Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, but rhetoric has intensified. Former President Donald Trump has warned of potential military action should negotiations fail, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile environment.

Oil prices held relatively firm amid these developments, though broader commodity markets reflected risk-off sentiment.

Precious Metals and Crypto Pull Back

Despite geopolitical tensions, precious metals retreated. Gold slipped toward the $4,900 per ounce level, while silver and platinum recorded sharper losses. The decline suggests profit-taking after recent rallies rather than a full unwind of safe-haven positioning.

Cryptocurrencies also softened, with Bitcoin trading near $68,300. The pullback comes amid broader volatility across speculative assets as traders recalibrate exposure to high-beta trades.

The “AI Cannibalisation” Debate Intensifies

Artificial intelligence remains a central theme driving cross-asset volatility. While earnings growth in the US remains resilient, with companies delivering approximately 13% growth this season, concerns are building around what some strategists describe as “AI cannibalisation.”

The debate centres on whether AI adoption will enhance productivity or disrupt entire business models, particularly in software, media, and business services. Investment banks are already structuring thematic baskets that go long companies poised to benefit from AI adoption while shorting those potentially vulnerable to workflow displacement.

This divergence is adding dispersion within equity markets and amplifying stock-specific volatility.

Corporate Movers

Several notable corporate developments added to the narrative:

• BHP Group shares surged after reporting a more than 20% rise in half-year earnings, supported by strong copper prices.
• Apple Inc. announced a March 4 product launch event, fueling anticipation for new device announcements.
• Danaher Corporation is reportedly nearing a $10 billion acquisition of Masimo.
• Alibaba Group unveiled a major upgrade to its flagship AI model, intensifying competition in China’s fast-moving AI race.
• Advanced Micro Devices announced collaboration plans with Tata Consultancy Services to expand AI data-centre capabilities in India.

The Bigger Picture

Markets are navigating a complex intersection of themes:

• Slowing but persistent inflation
• Uncertainty over the timing of Fed rate cuts
• Renewed geopolitical risks
• Earnings resilience versus valuation concerns
• Structural disruption from artificial intelligence

With liquidity thinner due to global holidays and catalysts limited early in the week, volatility may remain elevated as investors look toward fresh economic data and central bank commentary for direction.

For now, the tone is defensive. Whether this develops into a deeper correction or merely a consolidation phase will likely depend on upcoming inflation readings, Fed communication, and the sustainability of corporate earnings growth.