AI companies are clashing with the White House over developing AI products. The NASDAQ fell 1.30% on Monday as Wall Street turn ‘risk-off’ due to a potential AI slowdown. In addition to this, investors turned their attention to key central bank decisions, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan.

The decline is not only seen among tech-stocks, indices globally are trading lower. The worst performing indices are the Nikkei 225, NASDAQ, and the Euro Stoxx 50. The downward pressure seen in the equity market is partially due to the talk of slowing down AI development, but also due to a more hawkish global monetary policy. The market now expects the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan to hike by 0.25% this week.

The best-performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar, Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc. The worst-performing are the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar.

NASDAQ - AI Slow Down Gets President Trump’s Attention

The NASDAQ saw a relatively strong and rare bearish price gap this morning. The decline is a combination of three developing stories: the AI slowdown, higher oil prices, and the upcoming Fed decision.

OpenAI was the first major AI company to call for slower development to improve safety and reduce potential future risks. After the comments by OpenAI’s CEO, the NASDAQ saw some decline but was able to bounce back the next day. However, Anthropic has now also taken a similar tone and caught the attention of the White House.

As a result, investors are not waiting for clarity, they are selling now and asking questions later. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has suggested allowing independent third-party evaluators to assess new AI systems before launch, an approach OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has also said he supports and plans to adopt.

The White House has pushed back against calls to slow AI development, with President Trump arguing that maintaining America’s technological lead over China is a priority. Trump acknowledged that some safeguards may be necessary but dismissed warnings around AI, stating that ‘whoever wins AI wins.’ His administration favours industry-led safety measures and opposes restrictions that could slow US innovation or allow China to close the gap.

The NASDAQ's price movement will now depend largely on whether the government and AI companies can calm investors’ nerves. Another key factor will be the Federal Reserve’s guidance on future rate adjustments.

The bearish price gap has taken the index down to the key support level. Downward price movement over the past month has been unable to break below this support level. If the price does fall, lower bearish indications are likely to materialise. When monitoring only the daily price movement, the price is forming a descending triangle pattern, which is known to indicate bearish sentiment. In the short term, bearish signals are likely to remain while the price trades below $29,046.85 and strengthen below $29,000.00.

US Dollar - Fed and Oil Prices

A positive factor for the US Dollar is the expectation for an upcoming interest rate hike and higher oil prices. According to the Chicago Exchange, the possibility of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday evening is 90%. The rate hike is almost fully priced into the market, but not completely. Therefore, the hike could trigger volatility, but the key price drivers will most likely be the Fed’s tone and oil prices.

Oil prices have now remained above $100 for almost three days. Oil prices rose sharply at the start of the week, with Brent crude climbing above $108 per barrel as tensions in the Middle East intensified. The main concern is the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s key East-West pipeline following drone attacks, reducing an important alternative route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Simultaneously, continued Houthi attacks and renewed threats around major shipping routes have increased fears of further supply disruptions. If the Federal Reserve provides a hawkish tone and oil prices remain close to $100 per barrel, the US Dollar could maintain bullish price movement.

Of particular interest is the EUR/USD, which has fallen below the support level and is experiencing strong bearish price action.

Key Takeaway Points:

• AI slowdown concerns and White House opposition are increasing uncertainty across the technology sector and weighing on the NASDAQ.
• Global equity markets are under pressure as investors prepare for potentially more hawkish decisions from major central banks.
• The US Dollar remains supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and elevated oil prices.
• Brent crude above $100 continues to raise inflation concerns and increase volatility across financial markets.